According to a new report recently released by one of the world’s leading data providers, GlobalData, renewable energy capacity in Brazil, is expected to increase to close to 61GW by the year 2030. For comparison, the South American country produced 31GW in 2018.
GlobalData’s report, ‘Brazil Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2019 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape’ highlighted that a compound annual growth rate of 6% is expected between 2018 and 2030.
The report went on to explain the reason for the growth was due to the promotion of hybrid renewables projects, clean power auctions along with other successful government initiatives, including smart metering, green power targets, tax incentives and favourable grid access policies.
Brazil’s Solar Energy is projected to grow at 14% with a projected growth of 6% for the onshore wind sector, resulting in renewable energy becoming the second largest contributor to the country’s energy total by 2030.
Arkapal Sil, the power industry analyst for GlobalData, explains, “The connection of over 25,000 power systems, mostly solar PV systems to the Brazilian grid in mid-2018 under the net metering scheme, further underpins the renewable growth pattern over the forecast period.
“The main challenges for Brazil’s power sector are its over-dependence on cheap hydropower for base-load capacity and lack of a robust power grid infrastructure.
“In 2018, hydropower accounted for 62.7% of the country’s total installed capacity. In case of a drought, depletion of dam reservoirs could result in power shortages and switching over to costly thermal power, which will increase the electricity prices.”
It is expected over the long term that hydropower capacity in Brazil will decrease; however, this will be offset with increased renewable power capacity.
Mr. Sil added, “Brazil is moving towards a balanced energy mix as it prepares to double its non-hydro renewable power capacity by 2030.
“With an almost 10GW increase in thermal power capacity by 2030 compared to 2018, the country is on course to better manage peak demand, reduce dependence on hydropower and maintain a healthy grid.”